Countdown to the Spurs 2015/16 Season

With five days to go before the Premier League opening weekend I’m previewing the Spurs season but with a numerical twist! I’ll countdown the days from 5 to 1 giving my thoughts on each number, each day.

                                                                                  5 Days

My five is for 5^th place. Tottenham finished 5^th last season and realistically I think that this should be the expected target again. Despite the form of Harry Kane last season and the improvements made to the Spurs defence so far in the summer transfer window I think a 4^th placed finish is unlikely. Fundamentally this is because of the well-established principle that league success is strongly correlated with player wages and, to a much lesser extent, player transfer value (Kuper and Szymanski, 2012). Last season Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United finished above Spurs and although the data is hard to come by I would guarantee that all teams had higher wage bills than spurs (especially given the number of young players in the first team on lower wages).

Source: tottenhamhotspur.com

In fact, according to data experts at the CIES Football Observatory Spurs actually overachieved by two league places last year based on predictions using the demographic structure of the clubs (including wages). Based on their predictions Spurs should have finished 7^th behind the usual suspects plus Everton! Liverpool underperformed by three places by finishing 6^th when they were predicted to finish 3^rd and all other top four teams performed as expected. Similarly, based on cumulative transfer values per team (from data correct as of 8th June 2015) Spurs were the 6^th most expensive English club behind Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United. So Spurs really did overachieve by finishing 5^th based on wage and transfer estimates. Luck (or Harry Kane) probably played a key part in last season’s performance but for Spurs to break into the top four another team has to drop out and who will this be?

So far this season Spurs have bought well but conservatively with an estimated total spend of £19.3m (Wimmer, Alderweireld and Trippier). Elsewhere, Liverpool have strengthened their first team by spending an estimated £83m (Clyne, Firminio, Milner, Ings and Benteke). Manchester United have also spent an estimated £76.7m (Schneiderlin, Schweinsteiger, Depay and Darmian) and Manchester City an estimated £57m (Sterling and Delph). Only Chelsea (£12.5m on Begovic and Nathan) and Arsenal (£10 on Cech) have spent less than Spurs but I doubt that the gap in squad quality has been bridged.

So we can expect another battle for 5^th and the Europa League again. If Liverpool’s signings actually work out however we might even end up with 6^th!

What do you think Spurs fans?  Is 5^th the realistic target?

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Psychobob

I am a psychologist and Spurs fan but not necessarily in that order. I am passionate about football in general. I have a soft spot for numbers and love to write about football from a statistical perspective.

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