Before this season began, there were many people who felt that West Ham and Sunderland would be scrapping in the same section of the league throughout this season. In fact, in the ‘West Ham til I Die’ user prediction game, the average prediction for West Ham was 10th, and 12th for Sunderland.
It’s fair to say, the season hasn’t quite gone like that so far.
West Ham sit in one of the power seats of the division, among the esteemed company of Chelsea and the two Manchester clubs. Meanwhile, Sunderland have won just twice this season and are currently in 14th place.
But despite only having a pair of wins so far, the Black Cats can be a tough nut to crack, and this weekend will be a real test of the newly found quality and resilience of the Hammers.
Key Player
There may be a few raised eyebrows at my selection of Sunderland’s key player.
The likes of John O’Shea, Anthony Reveillere and Sebastien Larsson have all been in good form this recently, but the man I am picking out is forward-cum-winger Connor Wickham.
The former Ipswich Town prodigy hasn’t really had the career Sunderland had hoped for when they forked out £8m to sign the then 18 year old back in 2011. However, he ended last season in blistering form, and has been an ever present in Gus Poyet’s side this term.
His form has been patchy, but when he is on song he is the sort of player that is capable of winning any game. If we take a look at Sunderland’s victories this season, you can see the sort of impact that England U21 international can have on his side.
In the 3-1 over Stoke back at the beginning of October, Wickham bagged himself a goal, and assist, two interceptions, three clearances, put in three tackles and generally ran himself into the ground.
The images below show his heat map and take ons from the game. On the day, he was successful 4 out of the 5 times he took on his man, and, significantly, three of those were in or around the penalty area. This displays Wickham’s direct approach, picking up the ball and driving at the opposition.
And his heat map from the game shows that he is difficult to pick up too. Despite lining up as a left winger in most games this season, the youngster has a tendency to pop up all over the park, working back to help his fullbacks, picking up the ball in the central channel, or coming in off the right.
http://epl.squawka.com/sunderland-vs-stoke-city/
In the other win, November’s 3-1 win at Crystal Palace, Wickham didn’t produce such an impact. However, his performance shows that he has a pretty well rounded game.
He had 10 aerial duels in that game (winning 50%), attempted 10 tackles (winning 50%), and made 5 clearances.
His heat map below displays his work rate for the team, as they withstood heavy pressure from the Eagles. You can see that he spent a significant amount of time defending in the left fullback area.
http://epl.squawka.com/crystal-palace-vs-sunderland/
He may not be a world beater, and he may not even be Sunderland’s best player, but Connor Wickham is the sort that can produce a performance out of the blue, and cause some serious damage to an opposition.
How do you stop Sunderland?
Despite their poor start to the season, the Black Cats have only actually lost two home games this season – against Arsenal and Manchester City. The problem they have had is that they’ve drawn 5 of their opening 8 home games, winning just once.
One of the key reasons that they have struggled to convert draws to wins is the approach they tend to take. Gus Poyet’s side are one of those that are happy to allow the opposition to have the ball and attack, and then try to hit them on the break. This is an approach that they tend to adopt both home and away.
The chart below shows the possession held by Sunderland in their 8 home league games this season, compared with West Ham’s possession in our 7 away games this season.
You can see that the Hammers have generally held more possession away from home than the Black Cats have managed at the Stadium of Light this term. From this, it seems a fair bet that the Irons are likely to have the lions share of possession.
Probably Sunderland’s best home results this season have come in the win against Stoke, and draw with Chelsea. In both of those games, the opposition has had the a massive bulk of possession, but Sunderland have been able to soak pressure and hit on the counter.
The images below show Sunderland’s take ons from both of those games, you can see that the approach is clearly to get out of defence quickly and get forward.
http://epl.squawka.com/sunderland-vs-stoke-city/ http://epl.squawka.com/sunderland-vs-chelsea/
Considering a pointed out being caught on the break as a weakness for West Ham after the Swansea game last week, this is something we will need to be mindful of as we surge forward in search of goals.
Weakness
One of Sunderland’s clear weaknesses is that they are weak defensively. They have been more resolute in recent weeks, but there is still a fragile streak at the back.
Three of the last five games Sunderland have played at home have been against Everton, Arsenal and Manchester City. The images below show the chances created by those sides.
You can see that all three took very different approaches to the game. Everton (left) favoured attacking down the flanks, putting in 17 crosses, and creating 8 of their 14 chances from the wide areas. All of the chances arsenal (centre) created were within the width of the penalty box, while Manchester City (right) mixed it up.
http://epl.squawka.com/sunderland-vs-everton/ http://epl.squawka.com/sunderland-vs-arsenal/ http://epl.squawka.com/sunderland-vs-manchester-city/
During those games Everton only scored from a penalty and Arsenal’s goals came from defensive lapses, whilst City created a lot of chances, and scored four from open play.
Against Sunderland, the style of the approach play is not as pronounced as it is against other sides. For example, you wouldn’t tend to go long against Stoke as they will beat most players in the air, but against Arsenal you’re likely to have a lot of joy in the air.
If West Ham are to pick up another victory on the road, we must be willing to adapt, and mix our styles. We shouldn’t simply look to put the ball on Carroll’s head, or look to Downing to pick passes, or Sakho to run behind. We must do all of these things and more.
Conclusion
On paper, we are a side that should be beating Sunderland. We have an almost entirely fit squad to choose from, our form is good, and there’s isn’t great.
Despite this, I have a sneaking feeling that we won’t get the win we are after. For me, any away point is a good point, and that’s what I think we’ll get: a good point.
For match stats, visit my personal West Ham dedicated blog.
Tom Aldworth
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