Swansea City vs West Ham United: Preview

Analysis

It feels like forever since I last wrote about West Ham, and in my absence we’ve had a couple of very good results. I last wrote properly for a match preview against Everton. Since then, we had the defeat at Goodison, but followed it up with a home win against the in-form Newcastle United and then a very hard fought away win at West Bromwich Albion on Tuesday night.

This weekend, we welcome Swansea City to the Boleyn, and will be hoping to continue the Swans poor away form. Garry Monk’s side haven’t won away from the Liberty since the opening day of the season, picking up just two away points in their subsequent five league games.

However, this poor form does not mean West Ham should take Sunday’s visitors lightly.

Key Player

Swansea have won a lot of plaudits for their results this season – though their weak away form has been somewhat neglected by the media – and there have been a number of players that have contributed to their good start to the season.

Goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski has had a good start to life in Wales after replacing Michel Vorm in the summer. Neil Taylor has slipped seamlessly back into the XI after Ben Davies’ move to Spurs. Wayne Routledge, Nathan Dyer and Jefferson Montero are one of the best pools of wingers in the division, Wilfried Bony has been in blistering goalscoring form, and Ki Sung-Yeung’s form has made Michael Laudrup’s decision to send him to Sunderland on loan last season look all the more bizarre.

But despite all of this, there has been one truly outstanding performing in the Swans ranks.

Gylfi Sigurdsson has been at the heart of everything that is good about Swansea this season. The Icelandic international has created 37 chances in 14 games, and bagged a massive 8 assists in the process.

He’s also nabbed himself a pair of goals, has a passing accuracy of 86% and has a mightily impressive 19 interceptions to his name.

The images below show his performance in last weekend’s draw with Crystal Palace. Although his side didn’t manage to get the result they were after, Sigurdsson pulled the strings. The image on the left shows the four chances (including one assist) he created on the day, and the image on the right shows his heat map.

You’ll notice that all of those chances created came from that pocket of space between the midfield and defence – the traditional #10 space. His heat map shows that, although he is capable and willing to drift around the park, he operates mostly in that area just outside of the box.

West Ham may be without defensive midfield pair Mark Noble and Alex Song again this weekend. If those two don’t make it, whoever fills the holding role will need to be right on top of his game to keep Sigurdsson quiet.

How do you stop Swansea?

As I’ve already mentioned, the Swans’ away record this season has been pretty bad. Okay, so they’ve played some top sides, but they are a totally different animal away from home.

Ignoring the recent loss to Manchester City, the three away games for before that have been a pair of nil-nil draws at Everton and Sunderland, sandwiching a 2-1 defeat at Stoke City.

I’ve looked at the performances of the three home teams in that game, and there seems to be a pattern emerging in how to play against Swansea.

We all know that they keep the ball for fun, and will pass teams into submission if given the opportunity. They love to dictate the tempo of a game, and want to play it on their own terms. What the opposition in the last few away games have done, is really take the game to the Swans.

Everton took 17 shots against Swansea, with 11 coming from outside of the box, and attempted 22 take ons and 20 tackles in the Swansea half.

Stoke took 15 shows, 7 from outside of the box, and attempted 18 take ons and 11 tackles in the Swans half. And Sunderland had 15 shots, 7 from outside of the box, 15 take ons and 13 tackles in the opposition half.

What this shows, is that the home side has taken the initiative and has had a real go at Swansea.

This approach leads to the Swans being pegged back somewhat, unable to play the expansive game that we are accustomed to seeing from them.

Swansea’s average positions against Sunderland compared to their last home game against QPR demonstrates very well how this front-foot approach causes the Swans to condense and play a far more conservative game.

The images below show Swansea’s average positions against both Sunderland and QPR. You can see that their home approach is to spread the play, get men wide, and get men forward. In the Sunderland game, they took a very narrow approach, and played into the Black Cats hands.

West Ham have the capability to get at Swansea on Sunday, and a positive, Go Get ‘Em approach is key if we are to take the three points.

Weakness

According to Whoscored.com, some of Swansea’s main weaknesses this season have been their struggle to hold onto a lead.

In the Premier League this season, Swansea have taken the lead on 13 separate occasions, in 11 different games. They have only held 6 of those leads to the end of a game, meaning they have failed to see out a game when in the lead on 7 seperate occasions.

On average, each lead the Swans have held has lasted for just 30 minutes, and when you just count those they they managed to throw away, their leads last for just 19.9 minutes.

The table below shows each of their leads, what happened, and what happened in the game as a whole.

Conclusion

Swansea will prove a tough opposition for West Ham on Sunday, but one we should not be daunted by. The Swans have the players to cause damage to any opponent, but their away record leaves a lot to be desired, and their season so far indicates that going a goal behind against them does not mean it is game over.

I’m torn on what to expect as a result from this game. If the likes of Alex Song and Diafra Sakho are back and available, I would think we will have more than enough to win the game. However, if we are still missing a couple of players, a draw could be a very acceptable result.

For match stats, visit my personal West Ham dedicated blog.