This is adapted from Clutch Football’s season preview podcast. Listen here.
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Almost as soon as it went away, the Premier League is nearly back. Even the ‘break’ has been filled with Champions League action in the men’s, women’s and youth formats, as well as the early returns of other leagues across Europe. There has duly been very little time to stop and take stock – with the 2020/21 season just a week away, though, it is time to consider how it is shaping up.
The big question at the right end of the table is whether Liverpool can retain their crown. It was a special moment for the club when Jordan Henderson raised the trophy, and the ethereal feel of a presentation to an empty Anfield undoubtedly bestowed a uniqueness on the accomplishment. Nonetheless, with Jurgen Klopp so openly keen to promote a synergy between the fans in the stand and the players on the pitch, there will be plenty of motivation to go again: with the 30-year wait for a top-flight title finally ended, the next goal will be to win one that can be fully shared with supporters.
In many ways it is remarkable that they do not start as favourites. This Liverpool side finished 18 points clear of second in the last campaign. Nor was it a fluke: they have amassed at least 97 points in each of the last two seasons, an amazing feat of consistency. While certain underlying numbers, most notably expected goals, point to a regression, at this stage the idea has to be entertained that such models are not adequately reflecting what this side are doing.
That being said, it is not unreasonable to suggest a much firmer challenge from Manchester City. Last season was very poor by the astronomical standards they have set themselves under Pep Guardiola, and it would be surprising if there was no response. Even before any transfer activity, this group will be determined to prove that they are better than they showed in 19/20 – add to that a likely slew of world class signings, and they are of course very real contenders. A certain Lionel Messi would cause everyone to rip up their predictions and start again.
Nonetheless, even assuming Liverpool drop off a little, there is still a big gap for City to surmount. An 18-point swing is not insignificant by any means. While City are likely to maintain and even extend their goalscoring prowess, if they cannot rapidly construct a defence that can be fully relied upon then they will face an uphill battle to reclaim the Premier League.
Slightly further down the league, the top four battle is also set to be an interesting one. Following a busy and lavish window, anything less than third would be a huge disappointment for Chelsea. Big money has been spent on Timo Werner, Hakim Ziyech and Ben Chilwell, with Thiago Silva also being brought in on a free – others look likely to follow, with Kai Havertz being heavily linked. This firmly marks the end of Frank Lampard’s free pass: freed from the constraints of a transfer ban, he must now be judged by the standards of a club used to being serial winners.
A legend as a player, he still has much to prove as a coach. He took the plaudits for guiding Chelsea into the Champions League, but in truth last season’s points tally would have seen them miss out in the majority of Premier League campaigns. Having been backed to the hilt, he will now be expected to improve – if he does not at least close the gap to Manchester City and Liverpool, questions will be asked. Particularly given that the signings are for the most part focused on improving the side’s attacking strength, it will be interesting to see if Lampard can get a hold of the defence: a very positive left-back and a 35-year old central defender will not magically solve his problems. He will need to find a way of evolving from what essentially remains a counter-attacking setup if he truly wants to be in the conversation with Klopp and Guardiola’s sides.
Other teams with top four aspirations include Manchester United, Arsenal, Spurs and Leicester. Any of them could theoretically mount a bid, but in this case the dark horses are in fact Wolves. Now with two very solid campaigns in the Premier League, they have consolidated themselves as contenders for the European slots. They just missed out on a second straight Europa League place last season, but that could be a huge advantage in 2020/21. The calendar is even more packed than ever, with games being jammed into the condensed season wherever it is humanly possible to play them – a strong side without any European commitments are very well-placed to make a bid for the top four.
Manchester United are probably the most likely candidates to bar entry to the outsiders. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has created a young and exciting front line. With the addition of Donny van de Beek, joining Paul Pogba and Bruno Fernandes, the midfield is now more than capable of providing the required service. In many ways they find themselves in a similar position to Chelsea – the question marks, such that they are, revolve primarily around the defence and the manager.
The back line is probably slightly more stable than that of their counterparts in the capital, but Harry Maguire has certainly not provided the return on investment that was hoped for. Equally, with David de Gea a shadow of his former self, the manager is faced with the tough choice of sticking by him or calling on Dean Henderson to step up and become United’s number one. He has proved himself at Sheffield United, but it is hard to predict what might happen if he has that pressure placed on him. That being said, Solskjaer is indisputably a good man manager: he will need to demonstrate that he has the tactical acumen to back that up if he is to guide his side safely into the top four again.
A North London scrap for Europa League places seems like the most likely scenario. Spurs and Arsenal both appointed new managers midway through last season – both Jose Mourinho and Mikel Arteta have been robbed of a proper pre-season heading into the new campaign, so it is to be expected that both sides will continue to learn and adapt to new styles on the job. Of these two styles, Arteta’s seems the most likely to bear fruit: he finished the season with a string of impressive results, culminating in an FA Cup final victory. His team also defeated Liverpool on penalties in this year’s Community Shield. Even with seemingly shrewd defensive additions it seems unlikely that Arsenal can keep pace with such esteemed company over the course of a full season, but there are promising signs.
This is technically Mourinho’s fabled second season, where he traditionally excels, but we are at the point where this feels like folklore from a footballing era that has passed. Spurs fans allowed themselves to get excited when he joined, caught up in the grandeur of appointing a man who was once genuinely great, but the game has moved on. In certain very specific circumstances, he is still the best man for the job – Chelsea’s infamous win over Liverpool in 2013/14 springs to mind, where his desire to be the pantomime villain lent itself perfectly to the occasion. For a whole season, though, it is difficult to make the case that he is an upgrade on Mauricio Pochettino. Seventh seems like the most plausible finish.
Leicester will have ambitions beyond eighth, having come close to claiming a Champions League spot last season, but there are a number of reasons to expect them to slip back a little. They struggled badly last time they were forced to balance the league with a European campaign – just as the busy calendar enlarges Wolves’ advantage, it exacerbates Leicester’s problems in this respect.
The side also remains reliant on an ageing Jamie Vardy: while he is still capable of performing at a high level, some regression in his goalscoring numbers seems inevitable. Brendan Rodgers is not a bad manager, and often does not get the credit his career warrants, but the drop-off that started towards the end of last season does not bode hugely well.
At this point it is harder to delineate between which sides belong in part one of this preview and which should be considered when focusing on the bottom half. Mid-table is notoriously hard to predict – there was divergence on these positions from the Clutch Football panel. However, as the host and the author, I will give precedence to my predicted table (apologies to Everton). This sees Southampton and Sheffield United finish in 9th and 10th respectively.
In terms of Southampton, this is great credit to both Ralph Hassenhutl and the board. The easy decision would have been to sack him after an embarrassing 9-0 drubbing at the hands of Leicester. Persistence has undoubtedly paid off: a strong second half to the season secured comfortable safety in 11th place. With the players now fully accustomed to the methods of the man known as the Alpine Klopp, the squad looks well-placed to take the step into the top half. Danny Ings cannot be expected to put up quite such impressive goalscoring numbers for a second season running, but after the restart Che Adams proved that he was capable of picking up some of the slack. On the whole, the Saints look well-equipped.
Sneaking in at tenth is Sheffield United. This would represent a drop of one position from their hugely impressive first season back in the Premier League. With the squad available it seems unlikely that they can go much higher, but equally it is unfair to presume that their strong final position was a one-off. Chris Wilder is a genuinely innovative coach, and he has shown that his much-discussed system translates well to the top flight. A more reliable marksman would undoubtedly help their cause, with both McBurnie and McGoldrick failing to find the net with much regularity, but each of them were generally getting into encouraging positions. Overall, they merit a predicted top half finish.
With the top ten concluded, make sure to look out for Part 2 – this will look at the likely outcomes in the bottom half of the league. For a team-by-team discussion of everything written here and more, tune in to the podcast.
James Martin
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