This is adapted from Clutch Football’s season preview podcast. Listen here.
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With the Premier League season fast approaching, it is time to assess the prospects of the 20 teams who will be competing in the 2020/21 campaign. Part One looked at the likely top ten – in this piece, attention turns to the bottom half.
Relegation scraps are notoriously difficult to predict. A majority of people were sceptical about Sheffield United’s survival prospects last year before they confounded expectations to finish 9th. Nonetheless, working from the bottom up, there are a few teams likely to be struggling.
West Brom seem like prime candidates. Promoted in second from the Championship, there are a series of headline numbers that do not bode well. They didn’t pick up a single win against the top four in the second tier: struggles against higher-quality opposition is an alarming trait to be carrying into the Premier League. Additionally, they racked up a league-high 17 draws: this screams of a side that has found its level, rather than one ready to kick on.
Add to that the fact that Charlie Austin and Hal Robson-Kanu top-scored in the league with an uninspiring 10 goals apiece, and it is hard to make a strong case for their survival. Securing Matheus Pereira permanently is a definite boost, as he was talismanic for them last season, but it is a big ask for him to carry them to safety.
They may well be joined near the foot of the table by some more established top-flight names. In particular, Crystal Palace and Newcastle are displaying some red flags that could indicate an end to their stays at the top table. Steve Bruce’s side finished last season dead last in the expected goals table. This needs to be contextualised, and the fact that the manager has utilised set pieces effectively does somewhat skew the numbers, but the sheer scarcity of quality open play chances is nonetheless alarming.
If they are to survive again, much reliance will be placed on the talent of Allan St-Maximin – particularly when operating in a team that does not really play to his strengths, it may be unreasonable to expect him to drag them to safety. (The recent signing of Callum Wilson, which occurred after the podcasting recording, could tilt things in their favour.)
Crystal Palace find themselves in a similar boat. Like Bruce, Roy Hodgson is not famed for his positivity these days: a truly woeful run at the end of last season was an alarming sign, and another season without Wilfried Zaha producing his best form could spell trouble. The issue with having one obvious star name is that they will be targeted – the Ivory Coast international is rarely afforded space or time to work his magic, so it falls upon an underwhelming supporting cast to deliver the goods.
Jordan Ayew stepped up to the plate last season, but even then he only managed a fairly average return of nine goals. These came from just 25 shots on target, a surprisingly low number for the attacking focal point of a team. Palace have at least strengthened through signing promising QPR talent Ebere Eze, but he will need to hit the ground running with a seamless transition to the top flight in order to make the difference between relegation and survival.
That rounds out a somewhat controversial relegation prediction, but Fulham and Aston Villa could easily get sucked into the mix. The Cottagers came up via the play-offs, having finished 4th. If they are to survive, it will surely be in no small part thanks to the contributions of Aleksandar Mitrovic: he was the overall Championship top scorer last season, notching 26 times. Such returns are of course highly unlikely in the Premier League, but he has already shown he can perform well for Fulham in the top flight. He hit double figures in the 2018/19 campaign – similar returns could help spearhead a survival bid. Scott Parker has impressed since taking over as manager, but staying up will undoubtedly be his biggest test to date.
Villa only just hung on last season, relying more on Watford’s chronic underperformance than anything else. They did pick up slightly at the business end, hauling themselves to safety with just one loss in the last five matches, but there is still a question mark over whether they really have the required quality.
Jack Grealish is very much carrying the flag for their survival hopes – he finished top within the club last season for goals, assists, chances created and fouls won. Just as Zaha has ultimately found himself hamstrung by his star status, it seems likely Grealish will come up against more double-teams and strategies designed specifically to frustrate him in this campaign. If he is even a little bit stifled, it may spell trouble for Villa. That being said, the transfer window is still young. A new top-quality marksman would change the picture a lot. Equally, as per last year, there are three or more other teams who can be expected to struggle badly. With that in mind, they may well scrape to safety once more.
The teams above this seem more likely to be firmly in the mid-table rather than fighting for their lives, again with the caveat that the bottom half is much harder to call than the top end. On the marginal end of this group is Leeds United. Finally back in the Premier League for the first time since 2004, they strode to the title in the Championship last season under the guidance of legendary tactician Marcelo Bielsa. As far as newly-promoted outfits come, they look in great shape.
Expectations should nonetheless probably still be tempered slightly – this uniquely congested season will be a test for Bielsa, whose teams infamously have a tendency to tail off in the second half of campaigns. While there are fewer fixtures than in the second tier, the intensity is much higher: it will be interesting to watch how the squad handle his high demands in the Premier League setting. Creative midfielders Mateusz Klich and Pablo Hernandez will also need to adapt to a league where they will have less time on the ball: dominating the Championship can actually be a double-edged sword in that regard, although Bielsa is clearly no slouch when it comes to drilling off-the-ball shape. Much will rest on whether Leeds can pick up the wins against the weaker sides in the division.
Burnley and West Ham look like classic mid-table candidates. Last season saw the former punch above their weight, while the London club underperformed – I expect both to revert slightly to type, dragging them into 13th/14th territory. Sean Dyche did very well to guide a fairly limited squad to finish 10th last season: he has repeatedly shown he is a master of extracting and maximising talent at this level, so even if the defence fails to be quite as resolute this year they should still be safe from relegation fears.
David Moyes, meanwhile, was somewhat less impressive. In fairness, having come in as a firefighter of sorts, he arguably fulfilled his brief by keeping West Ham up. However, it cannot be ignored that the squad should not have been anywhere near the bottom three: his revolution came with more of a whimper than a bang. In any case, he definitely doesn’t fit the profile as the ideal manager to help this side kick on now – his CV contains a string of disappointments ever since he left Everton. Even so, he should be able to keep them up; if he does find himself flirting with relegation after a couple of months, expect the board to pull the trigger. Either way, mid-table obscurity looks likely.
My picks for 11th and 12th are harsh and flattering respectively. On the one hand, Everton fans will not be happy to see themselves tipped in the bottom half: they have a manager of serious pedigree in Carlo Ancelotti, and the deal for James Rodriguez has only served to raise expectations further. Nonetheless, in a very competitive league, these elements do not guarantee a top ten finish. Ancelotti has been best-known throughout his career for taking a light-touch approach with teams full of superstars – even with the addition of Rodriguez, Everton do not fit that bill. Meanwhile, the defence is still a problem area. Both full-backs are more renowned for attack than defence, and there are serious questions over Jordan Pickford in goal. 11th would actually represent an improvement on last season, but the Merseyside outfit will still be hoping for better.
Brighton fans, on the other hand, would probably take 12th if offered it now. Nonetheless, they are definitely capable of achieving it. Graham Potter ultimately guided them to safety in the last campaign with a relative degree of comfort. Known for his man management and squad morale techniques, more time at the club will only serve to enhance his prospects – as the players gel more, expect a tangible effect on performances. The new additions to the group also look promising: Adam Lallana in particular brings genuine quality and a winning mentality. All this means the conditions are there for a really strong year.
Whether that materialises remains to be seen. For all the statistics and signs, the Premier League always manages to produce surprises. This, though, is why we love to watch it and discuss it. For weekly episodes previewing the biggest clashes throughout the season, check out Clutch Football.
James Martin
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