I’m continuing with my preview of the new Spurs season with a numerical twist by counting down the days from 5 to 1 giving my thoughts on each number, each day.
My two is for ‘second season syndrome’. Harry Kane broke through to the first team and scored 21 goals in the Premier League last year which was a huge 700% increase on his goal tally in the 2013/14 season (3 goals in 14 appearances). He was, quite simply, a marvel. This has ultimately led people to speculate on whether he will be able to replicate this form in his second full season. Harry Kane himself has recently stated that he is not going to be a one-season wonder whilst others have suggested it already kicked in towards the end of last season.
The concept of ‘second season syndrome’ is based on a statistically sound premise. You’ve heard of the saying ‘what comes up must come down’? Well in statistical terms this is called ‘regression to the mean’. It means that when someone achieves an above average performance (goals, points, interceptions, anything) the odds are that sooner or later they will perform less well and return to their average. This affect can be really subtle but has been suggested to be behind the so called ‘new manager’ effect. Whenever a new manager comes in the team tends to play better and earn more points but really they are just regressing upwards to where they should be after a period of underperforming.
However, there exist players who can defy the odds and consistently perform at an above average level. Let’s look at some top Premier League players renowned for their goal scoring.
Now, it might take you a second to get to grips with the above graph. It isn’t a ‘Jackson Pollock’ rather it illustrates the amount of goals each player scored in the Premier League per season, standardised from their first to last. So the first season is not the same season but was the first season in the Premier League for each player.
Rooney, Owen, Fowler and to a slightly lesser extent Cole (he had a season playing for Bristol in the First Division where he played quite well and scored 20 goals) were all in a similar situation to Kane. They were young, promising and burst on to the scene. Owen (18), Fowler (25) and Cole (34) especially did well in their first full seasons, whereas Rooney took some time to build momentum. He has perhaps been the most inconsistent too with definite difficulties in the 9th and 11th seasons living up to a very strong goal tally the previous years. This isn’t second season syndrome but amounts to the same thing. Owen on the other hand was very consistent but never scored 20+ more Premier League goals in a single season in his career.
Following different trajectories, Andy Cole, Henry and Aguero burst on to the scene immediately probably because they had already been proven goals scorers in other leagues. Cole had a good second season but fell away afterwards whereas Henry was staggeringly consistent with his scoring performances, always scoring above 15 until his last season for Arsenal. Aguero you could argue did suffer from a second season blip having scored 23 in his first and 12 the following year. Finally you have the likes of Suarez and Ronaldo who just got better and better with each season, although again you could argue Ronaldo’s return of 18 goals after scoring 31 the season before was a bit of a disappointment (though one I’d take!). So there is some evidence of regression to the mean even with some of the greatest goal scorers of modern times but the goal trends of these players generally demonstrate that it is possible to perform consistently well over a number of seasons.
With 21 goals in his first full season (and 3 in the 2013/14 season) Harry Kane perhaps draws most parallels with Fowler’s start, who notably went on to have very successful second and third full seasons afterwards and of course is a Liverpool legend. Kane, Fowler and Cole are also the youngest players to have scored 20+ goals in a Premier League season so he is in very good company. But for every Fowler there is a Chris Sutton. He unfortunately also shares this honour but after a promising start with Norwich and Blackburn his career faded and he ended in obscurity at Ryman Division One side Wroxham. That’s right Wroxham, not Wrexham.
What do you think Spurs fans? How confident are you about Kane’s second season?
Psychobob
Latest posts by Psychobob (see all)
- Countdown to the Spurs 2015/16 Season…. 1 Day - August 7, 2015
- Countdown to the Spurs 2015/16 Season… 2 Days - August 6, 2015
- Countdown to the Spurs 2015/16 Season… 3 Days - August 5, 2015